| Jul. 20th, 2006 @ 07:41 am (no subject) |
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For the past week of been clinging to the computer digesting all the news that I can get about what has been happening in Lebanon and it really troubles me. I cannot see anything of benfit happening, I see no silver lining to this cloud. I think that Hezbullah is actually the one faction that is taking benefit from the entire crisis currently unfolding.
Of course, that is probably why they captured the Israeli soldiers in the first place. If Israel negotiated they could get a release of some prisoners. If they did not negotiate and started the sort of campaign that they are on now it strengthes Hezbullah domestically.
In the Lebanese civil war Beruit was a jungle. Christians againsy shhiites, shiites against sunnis, drus against christians, etc. There was no true alliance between any of the factions that lasted beyond a week. Israel entered that atmosphere and survived even if it was painful. But this time it is different I think. The Cedar government has been trying to reduce the influence of Syria, to create a more national Lebanon. But the government is not powerful enough to take on Hezbullah, the only faction that was not required to disarm after the peace. And of course, with Syria gone there has been a power vacum and Hezbullah has benefited (Hezbulllah for the uninitiated is an Iranian backed group).
The difference here is that there are no Lebanese factions that are going to go after Hezbullah in retribution for the outbreak of hostilities. The atmosphere in Lebanon has changed. Instead I see reports of Christians, after their neighborhoods have been bombed, voicing support for Hezbullah. Why? Simply because Hezbullah is on their side now. They are not afraid of Lebanese factions shooting up their houses. They are only afraid of Israeli Jets. And if Hezbullah is fighting against the people who are killing their families then they will support Hezbullah even if they do not support its goals or its policies.
Israel may be trying to destroy Hezbullah but they have actually only strengthened its hand in Lebanon. Every day that a bomb drops in Beruit is a day that Hezbullah gains support domestically.
I don't want to see Lebanon in the hands of Muslim extreemist groups but if this military action goes on any longer I'm not sure if it can be stopped. |
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